Which Game Will Lead In Holiday Sales? We’ve Got Odds!

Matthew Torino November 4, 2010 0

Many fans of games want theirs to sell the most this holiday season whether it's because they just have pride in what they like or because they want to see their game do well enough in hopes that it will get a sequel. Nobody wants their favorite games to go the way of Psychonauts and never be heard from again or end up like E.T. in a landfill somewhere. Well, Mickey Richardson and his team at Bookmaker.com have come up with the odds for which games will sell the most this holiday season. Richardson's not new to the entertainment gambling game as he's set lines on TV shows like Project Runway and Top Chef as well as what would happen in the Lost finale. So which games are going to sell the most? Find out after the jump.


Richardson and his team unsurprisngly have set Halo Reach as the heavy favorite at +125 (yay for gambling terms!) or a 44% likelihood that it'll win. That really shouldn't come as much of a surprise due to its early release and it being Halo. A lethal combination. Fallout New Vegas was second at +250 at 28%. Rounding out the top 3 is fellow proven seller Rock Band 3 at 25% and +300. (Just to clarify, the +/- indicates the return on the investment and the percentage is the likelihood for that event to occur, as seen by Halo's low +/- and high percentage).

Surprisingly Call of Duty Black Ops didn't make the top 3 despite Modern Warfare's stellar sales the last couple of years. Maybe they just expect the sales to revert to a few years ago. Red Dead Redemption came in last with only 19% simply because it's been out so long and most people who are going to buy the game probably already have it unless they have to wait until Christmas since they're broke. Mass Effect 2 and Assassin's Creed: Brotherhood came in at 20% and 21% respectively. They're just not the proven sellers that the others are.

So after seeing these odds, it's pretty obvious that Halo Reach is the heavy favorite due to name recognition and all around quality. It's probably equal in the latter but blows away all the others in terms of its name. None of the other games here have ever been console sellers as Halo has, so its recognition is well deserved.

There really aren't any surprises in terms of the odds, but let's wait until Christmas to see which games actually came out on top. But it'll probably be Halo anyway.


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